They’re a little late, but here are my predictions for the 81st edition of NBA Basketball.

Pardon the tardiness of these prognostications. I definitely intended for this site to be up and running sooner than nearly a week into the 2026-27 NBA season. Nevertheless, I still want to plant a flag before the season gets too far away from me. Posting these predictions anyways gives me something in writing to look back on at the end of the year.

I’m sure that most of these predictions will go wrong when the season is all said and done. Honestly, I’d be a little scared if I was dead-on with all of them! But it’s interesting to see how the results will compare to my guesses. The differences between them will show interesting biases or gaps in my understanding of the sport, and it’s fun to learn new things.

So here are my full predictions for how the regular season, major individual awards, and playoffs will unfold. Despite this late posting, I did not take any regular season results into account when making my decisions.

REGULAR SEASON

Instead of simply going off of vibes and just power-ranking the conferences, I wanted to get to the heart of how I feel about each team. So I went over every season series and determined how I saw them shaking out. I added up the wins and losses for each team and came out with an 80-game standings table (since the other two games aren’t known until the NBA Cup Group Stage is complete).

So still vibes, but at a more granular level.

Below are the results by conference, with a little blurb for each team.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1ST: PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (62-18)
I understand that superteams in the NBA don’t always work out. However, it’s really hard to deny the combined experience, offensive variety, and basketball IQ of the Sixers’ starting five. Anyone in that quintet can drop 30 points on a given night! Losses will happen, but there will be few (if any) nights where this team will be outclassed.

2ND: NEW YORK KNICKS (55-25)
Beat out Orlando via season series tiebreaker (2-1)
The reigning champions proved that their mettle and cohesion could get them to glory. Repeating is hard in the 2020’s NBA, and with a new superteam 100 miles down the street, the path isn’t any easier.

3RD: ORLANDO MAGIC (55-25)
Before I dove into the season schedules, I didn’t believe in Magic. However, my examination made me reconcile the team’s collective positional size and two-way ability. Next thing I know, Orlando was winning most of their season series! If Franz Wagner can stay healthy and Paolo Banchero can improve his offensive game, this team could be trouble.

4TH: INDIANA PACERS (54-26)
The Pacers’ magical run in 2025 came to a screeching halt and rendered 2026 a lost season. Now that Tyrese Haliburton is back — and surely looking to prove he hasn’t lost a step — I feel like the Pacers are capable of picking up where they left off and competing for The Crown.

5TH: DETROIT PISTONS (53-37)
I thought I would have the Pistons higher before I dug into their schedule. Cade Cunningham‘s mere existence and their frontcourt depth will take this team far during the season. However, saddling all of their outside shooting on Duncan Robinson and Isaiah Joe feels like a precarious plan to rely on as the season draws on.

6TH: MIAMI HEAT (49-31)
The frontcourt trio of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Bobby Portis will be a force of nature in the interior. I think that will be more than enough for Miami on most nights this season. However, their backcourt depth is lacking and the potential consistency of the available personnel is questionable. That is a real limiting factor to their title contention.

7TH: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (47-33)
This team’s roster construction says “title contention”. However, as I stacked up this team against its opponents, the Cavaliers ultimately landed in Play-In range. Frankly, as long as you have James Harden on your roster, there is going to be a ceiling on your team’s championship prospects.

8TH: BOSTON CELTICS (43-37)
The Celtics are a fantastically coached team that will compete every night. However, Jayson Tatum is still not too far removed from his ruptured Achilles tendon injury and Paul George is objectively a statistical downgrade from Jaylen Brown. Those impact deficits will add up during this season.

9TH: CHARLOTTE HORNETS (40-40)
Moving on from supernova LaMelo Ball is quite the gamble that, after my schedule investigation, apparently leaves them in the same spot as last season: 9th place. On certain nights, this squad is going to put up some impressive performances. Other nights, the lack of LaMelo’s offensive electricity is going to feel like a phantom limb.

10TH: ATLANTA HAWKS (39-41)
I thought I would have the Hawks much higher than this. The additions of Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Kingston Flemings bolster a playoff-caliber rotation. My real worry is the top-level talent. Can Jalen Johnson, CJ McCollum, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker all replicate their output from last year? Even one of them falling off could throw things out of whack, and I feel like that’s what’s going to happen.

11TH: WASHINGTON WIZARDS (33-47)
This is a 17-win team that is dropping two multi-time All-Stars and two No. 1 overall picks (2018 and 2026) into the mix. That will certainly boost up their win total. However, the older players aren’t going to be able to bring it every night, and the younger players still have a lot of growing pains ahead of them.

12TH: TORONTO RAPTORS (30-50)
Despite last year’s 5th-place finish and Kawhi Leonard‘s return, I’m just not sold on this team. The defense will be there, but I worry about the consistency their top-end scoring and the depth and consistency of their center group. Another playoff berth wouldn’t be surprising, but I’m going to have to see it to really understand it.

13TH: CHICAGO BULLS (22-58)
The lanky boys — Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis, Caleb Wilson, Nic Claxton — are going to be fun to watch. And you know Norman Powell is going to have plenty of big scoring nights. However, this young team is going to endure a lot of growing pains. There will be a lot of ugly mixed in with the beauty this year in the Windy City.

14TH: MILWAUKEE BUCKS (17-63)
The Bucks are actually pretty deep when it comes to individual rotation-caliber talent. But this team doesn’t look like it’s going to be a cohesive bunch. A lot of these guys are probably looking for their tickets out of town, and those results will show on the court.

15TH: BROOKLYN NETS (16-64)
I honestly expected the Bucks and Nets to be flipped before I looked into the schedules. I respect that this team is built on positional size and I like Jordi Fernandez as a coach. Unfortunately, the majority of this roster is still way too green to impact winning on a nightly basis. Michael Porter and Julius Randle will get their buckets and that’s it.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1ST: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (62-18)
Beat out San Antonio via season series tiebreaker (2-1)
I’m sure the Thunder are pretty miffed about coming up short in last year’s Western Conference Finals. And when a 60-win team gets mad, they get even. With Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell back in the fold, and Aday Mara drafted as a Wemby-impeder, OKC should have little issue running through the competition.

2ND: SAN ANTONIO SPURS (62-18)
The Spurs are a young team that’s ahead of schedule; last year’s Finals was a very hard lesson. But look for them to keep pressing on as the core trio of Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper grow as players and grow as a team.

3RD: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (52-28)
Beat out Houston via conference wins tiebreaker (34-32)
Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball are an electric offensive duo, and the regular season will be their playground. Look for plenty of big games from both of them, some even on the same nights. They’re also flanked by championship-caliber glue players. So it’s not just two high-ego stars flinging the ball around: this team will be a tough out on a nightly basis.

4TH: HOUSTON ROCKETS (52-28)
Fred VanVleet‘s return and the acquisition of Marcus Smart are huge on the playmaking front for a team that was already plenty talented in the other departments. But I deeply worry about this team’s chemistry issues. I think last year’s Burnergate caused real harm in the locker room. Is a year removed from it going to heal the wounds, or will they re-open as the season progresses and gets tougher?

5TH: PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (49-31)
The Blazers are ranked much higher than I expected going into my schedule examination. Credit the dynamic offensive potential of Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, and Deni Avdija along with the frontcourt tenacity of Donovan Clingan, Robert Williams, and Toumani Camara. There are reasonable defensive backcourt concerns, but still I think this team has the firepower to win a lot of games this season.

6TH: UTAH JAZZ (46-34)
Now that Danny Ainge is done messing around and tanking, this team can start competing like the playoff-caliber team I think they already were! Darryn Peterson‘s addition is what raised this team to No-Play-In-Required status. He’s a multi-level scoring star being added to a team that is already offensively versatile and possesses a lot of frontcourt size. The Jazz are going to surprise a lot people this year.

7TH: DENVER NUGGETS (44-36)
The championship core of Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray are still here and will have great individual seasons. However, depth has been a real question over the past several years. I like their additions (DeMar DeRozan, Marvin Bagley, Alpha Diallo), but I still have doubts about the nightly consistency of the Nuggets’ rotation entering this season.

8TH: LOS ANGELES LAKERS (41-39)
The Lakers have very heavy Jekyll & Hyde potential. Their roster is built to run and pass a lot. On some nights, they will surely connect and streamroll opponents. On other nights, however, I worry that they will lose focus, forget how to defend, and stagnate on offense. It will be a roller-coaster season in LA, and JJ Redick will certainly have some gray hair on his head by the playoffs.

9TH: PHOENIX SUNS (31-49)
Note the White-Cliffs-of-Dover-esque drop-off in projected record between eighth place and ninth. The Suns were a scrappy surprise last year, but I don’t foresee them surprising anyone this year. Miles Bridges‘ addition gives them another bulky body in the starting lineup that can score a bit, but the lack of a high-level pure point guard is going to be a limiting factor towards any playoff success.

10TH: MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (30-50)
On paper, this squad seems like a bunch of mismatched guys. In reality, they’re a competitive outfit built on height, wingspan, and playmaking IQ. Cedric Coward will continue to impress, Zach Edey will bounce back from his injury-plagued sophomore year, and Cameron Boozer and Ty Jerome will open a lot of eyes with their offensive production. That being said, this team still has plenty of growing pains on the horizon.

11TH: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (27-53)
It’s Stephen Curry and that’s it. He is going to have a great statistical season. Unfortunately, the rest of the roster is a mess. The Warriors already enter the season with three players nursing long-term (maybe even career-ending) injuries. The remaining team members are all decent glue guys at best. That would be great to have on a team with two or three top-level scorers, but Golden State only has one of those. It’s going to be a long season in The Bay.

12TH: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (26-54)
Now that the smoke has cleared on The Aspiration Saga, Darius Garland is leading a basketball team. There are a lot of talented rotation players on this roster, but said roster is already saddled with its fair share of injuries. There will be a few electric nights on offense, otherwise the Clippers are just treading water.

13TH: DALLAS MAVERICKS (25-55)
It’s good to have Kyrie Irving back from injury, and I think he will have a solid year. Cooper Flagg is also going to build off of his Rookie of the Year campaign. After them, there are plenty of talented rotation players, but nobody to slot in as the third- or fourth- most-reliable scorer. I think that deficit will add up over the course of the season.

14TH: NEW ORLEANS PELICANS (24-56)
Despite being under new management on the sidelines, this is still an incongruent roster. It’s a cacophony of play-styles and developmental timelines. Yet in all of that mess they don’t have anyone that can consistently protect the rim! It’s going to be a long season on The Bayou.

15TH: SACRAMENTO KINGS (14-66)
It’s looking so bleak right now in California’s Capital. Darius Acuff is a decent foundational piece to draft. Sadly, the practice facility he walks into is full of worn out, ineffective players simply collecting a check or waiting for their ticket out of town. In my schedule research, it was hard to find the wins. Chances are, the Kings are going to be holding the NBA’s wooden spoon by season’s end.

AWARDS

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
This is going to be a fun race to watch throughout the season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to make a cogent, captivating case for his third consecutive win, and there are a sizable batch of dark horse candidates across the league.

Ultimately, Wembanyama tips the scales for me because I expect him to have an amazing statistical season that fills up the stat sheet in terms of points, rebounds, assists, and blocks. That production is going to make up a slightly larger share of the Spurs’ projected 62-18 record than SGA’s production will into OKC’s 62-18 record.

This will be a hotly-contested debate all year long, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all — and would still be happy — if SGA pulls off the three-peat. But at this point in time, my MVP vote goes to Vic the Alien.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
If Victor’s output is good enough for the MVP, that means he definitely put in work on the defensive end. There will be plenty of blocks, plenty of rebounds, and plenty of talented slashers making business decisions of not entering the paint. Look for Wemby to repeat as DPOY.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Darryn Peterson, Jazz
I expect all four of the top picks in the 2026 NBA Draft to have great seasons. However, Peterson gets the nod here as is scoring ability will play a key role in Utah’s playoff qualification. He has the opportunity to impact winning right away, and the voters will take notice.

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR
Ajay Mitchell, Thunder
There’s a chance that Jared McCain‘s production may siphon some votes away from Ajay, but I’m willing to take that chance. Mitchell is the best two-way bench player in the NBA. If injury didn’t cut his season eight games short of the games played requirement, he probably would have won it last year. Now that he’s back, I’m sure he’s ready to pick up where he left off.

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER
Ty Jerome, Grizzlies
It wasn’t lost on me that when NBA 2K27 was released, Jerome was tied for the highest-rated player on the Grizzlies at 80 overall. He was averaging 19.7 points per game before his season was cut short after 15 games due to injury. Now that he’s back, head coach Tuomas Iisalo is going to give Jerome plenty of room to score and make plays for a roster that is still trying to figure itself out. I’m sure Ty is up for the challenge.

PLAYOFFS

PLAY-IN ROUND

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cavaliers defeat Celtics
In a single-game setting, the Cavaliers hold the offensive advantage here. While the Celtics will certainly be locked in defensively, the explosive potential of James Harden and Donovan Mitchell coupled with the interior dominance of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley should help them secure the seventh seed.

Hawks defeat Hornets
While I project the Hawks to fall all the way to 10th in the East, I still think they possess a number of players that know how to perform in high-leverage games. Despite a rough season, I think Johnson, McCollum, Dort, Wiggins, and even Flemings know how to perform under pressure, and that will be enough to earn Atlanta another Play-In game.

Celtics defeat Hawks
Both of these teams are competitive defense squads, so I think the difference here is the top-level scoring. While neither will be their prime selves, I think Jayson Tatum and Paul George will welcome the pressure and deliver in this game, securing the Celtics’ eighth seed.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Nuggets defeat Lakers
Both of these teams will enter this game having completed inconsistent campaigns. However, in this single-game setting, I trust that the Nuggets’ defense is more likely to make stand in this game that the Lakers’. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves may come away with big games, but Denver’s championship trio will have the leg up and help their team lock-in the seventh seed.

Suns defeat Grizzlies
By season’s end, I think the Grizzlies will be the more cohesive team. However, Phoenix’s roster, led by Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks, has more players with big game experience. I think that will be the difference in this game. Like I said earlier, the 2026-27 Grizzlies have plenty of growing pains on the horizon. This will be their sunset.

Lakers defeat Suns
The Suns will look to muddy this game up defensively. However, I think Doncic and Reaves will breakthrough and have big games. Walker Kessler on the other end will frustrate Suns drivers that dare to enter the paint. Despite Phoenix’s best efforts, I expect LAL to run off on the Suns in this one.

FIRST ROUND

EASTERN CONFERENCE
76ers defeat Celtics, 4-0
I understand the narrative juiciness of Jaylen Brown vs. Jayson Tatum, but at the team level, I don’t see any reason why the Philly Train would be halted by the Celtics. Boston will certainly compete on the defensive end, but the Sixers still have too much offensive firepower and IQ for them to handle.

Pistons defeat Pacers, 4-3
The 4-5 matchup will live up to expectations, as these are two teams that are lanky and disruptive. The Pacers will win their games with their well-connected pace-and-space game led by Tyrese Haliburton. However, the Pistons will get the one-up on Indiana because Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren are two stars that I find to be more scoring-forward than Indiana’s two stars. I think when the clutch comes, Cunningham and Duren will finally deliver for Detroit.

Magic defeat Heat, 4-1
While I think Miami’s interior dominance will terrorize teams in the regular season, I think their luck will run out in the First Round. Orlando has the frontcourt size to at least impede Giannis, Bam, and Bobby. Meanwhile, the two-way ability of the Orlando backcourt will be good enough harass a Miami backcourt that already had major questions during the season. Look for at least one big Giannis game to keep the Heat from walking away empty-handed.

Knicks defeat Cavaliers, 4-2
I foresee the Knicks having minimal trouble disposing of the Cavs in Round One. I think Donovan and Harden are capable of putting up a big game or two that helps the Cavs win. But ultimately, the Knicks will have the mettle to hunker down and close out this series in a timely manner.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Thunder defeat Lakers, 4-1
I think there is a Luka game that will keep the Lakers from getting swept, but the Thunder are a team on a mission, and they shouldn’t have much trouble with LA.

Rockets defeat Trail Blazers, 4-1
This is where the defensive backcourt issues force the Blazers to hit the wall. The Rockets are not afraid to attack the paint, and Portland will have limited recourse against Houston’s onslaught. A Dame game or even a Ja outburst will help Portland snag a win before they head home.

Timberwolves defeat Jazz, 4-2
The Jazz won’t make it easy, but I think the Timberwolves will run away with this series. This feels like a series where Utah will take two of the first four games, but then Minnesota will make a key adjustment and figure out how to put away the Jazz. With dynamic scorers in Edwards, Ball, Peterson, and Lauri Markkanen, there will be plenty of offensive fireworks in this series.

Spurs defeat Nuggets, 4-2
The Spurs will win out, but the Nuggets won’t make it easy. Denver has a number of veterans that know how to handle big games, so they will have the resolve to take two games off of San Antonio. However, by this juncture, the Spurs will be moving at a different speed. They are have Finals experience and are younger and more athletic. That will be the difference-maker in this series.

CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

EASTERN CONFERENCE
76ers defeat Pistons, 4-2
Philadelphia will have their hands full against this defensive, athletic Pistons team. That athleticism and defensive energy is going to get Detroit some wins. However, the 76ers will stay in control as long as they stifle Cunningham as an offensive engine. Slowing down Cade will limit their offensive weaponry, while the Sixers possess multiple options, even if Detroit slows one or two of them down. Eventually, Philadelphia will prevail.

Knicks defeat Magic, 4-3
This is a series where both teams’ will bring the defense, so it boils down to which stars are going to come out. With Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, New York still has the advantage in that department. While I foresee Franz and Paolo improving as star players this season, I still think they will hit their ceiling in this round.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Thunder defeat Rockets, 4-2
This is where I think Houston’s chemistry issues will come to a head. Even if they don’t, the Thunder will be more locked-in than the Rockets, regardless. There will be big Shai and Kevin Durant games, there will be chippiness, there will be plenty of close games. But in the end, Oklahoma City has the firepower and mettle to eventually overtake Houston.

Spurs defeat Timberwolves, 4-3
Oh man, this is going to be fun. I think Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards will log some elite games, and I think the role players for both teams will rise to the occasion. However, I think this is the round where LaMelo Ball hits his ceiling. Ball is a dynamic offensive player, but he still hasn’t had any playoff experience until this year. It’s an inopportune time for him to get his schooling, but postseason lessons come for every NBA player eventually.

CONFERENCE FINALS

EASTERN CONFERENCE
76ers defeat Knicks, 4-2
The Knicks are a cohesive unit that will compete on both ends every night. But I think the Sixers Machine will prove to be even too mighty for The Power of Friendship. New York has Brunson and Towns as the stars willing to step up, while Philadelphia has LeBron James and Jaylen Brown and Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe and Anfernee Simons. Even for a team as defensively strong as New York, it’s hard to see them shutting down all of those release valves.
Conference Finals MVP: Jaylen Brown

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Thunder defeat Spurs, 4-3
Coming into this project, I just assumed the Spurs, give or take a few close games, would waltz their way back to the Finals for the second consecutive season. But digging deeper showed me just how potent the Oklahoma City Thunder still are. Salary cap restrictions have forced this team to part with key rotation pieces over the years, and yet they continue to reload.

The 3M’s Rotation players — Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, and Aday Mara — are going to be the X-factors in this round. Mitchell’s two-way playmaking, McCain’s scoring, and Mara’s interior presence could be the swing vote in an otherwise deadlocked matchup.

Shai and Wemby are going to put up performances we’ll tell our grandkids and niblings about, but ultimately I see the Thunder’s depth winning out over the Spurs’.
Conference Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

2027 NBA FINALS

76ers defeat Thunder, 4-2
The Oklahoma City Thunder are great offensively and elite defensively. The Philadelphia 76ers are elite offensively and great defensively. I’m normally a believer of The Golden Rule, but I think the Sixers have too much firepower for even a defensive squad like the Thunder to handle.

As I said in the Conference Finals blurb, the 76ers have too many players that are capable of dropping 30 on a given night. That’s too many players to expect a team to be able to shut down. Even when they do get cold, they have two title-winning players in LeBron James and Jaylen Brown and a title-winning coach in Nick Nurse that can figure out how to get back on track.

The season is long, and a lot can happen between now and June, but even if the individuals on the Sixers roster play at the same levels they did in 2025-26, I just can’t see another team getting more than two games off of them in a playoff series. But if any or all of their six offensive weapons improve in 2026-27, then the NBA is in big trouble.
Finals MVP: LeBron James